Think you know what the next hot Twitter trend will be? Now you can put your money where your mouth is.
Prediction markets have been a growing trend in recent years. It is essentially a stock market for future events and decisions. For example, people can buy or sell against a specific occurrence – like whether or not the Democrats will lose seats in the 2010 election. With thousands of people buying and selling on that occurrence, you can come up with a prediction that essentially utilized the crowdsourcing of open markets.
Now the prediction market has come to Twitter with PreTweeting, a new website that lets you buy specific words being used on Twitter and gives you $10,000 in virtual currency to do it.
Pretweeting is very straightforward in design. You can buy 50, 100, 500, or 1000 “slots,” with each slot equaling one word. Words rise and fall in price based on the market value, with $10 = being mentioned in 1% of all recent tweets. The top word for sale is currently “the”, which is going for about $228 as of this post. MashableMashable
, on the other hand, is going for a measly $0.23 at the moment (though it’s been at $0.45 in the past).
And really, that’s about it. You can chat with other pretweeters (using the #pretweeting hashtag), perform research on words, and check out the leaderboard. But it all focuses around the market for words on Twitter. You could make a great deal of virtual cash buying a trending topic on Twitter before it trends, or you could lose a bunch if a word drops off the list.
trend, or even the next big cultural phenomenon. There are a lot of useful applications of prediction markets. We think the same model is transferrable to Twitter.
It’s a ton of fun. This could become popular very fast.
September 3, 2009
Pretweeting: Twitter Gets a Prediction Market